Every so often we step back from our own numbers and look at the market’s. Here is what the most recent industry data says about art toys, plush and AI companions as of October 2026 — including the parts that give us pause.
Coherent Market Insights values the global art toy market at US$6.94 billion in 2026, reaching US$14.97 billion by 2033 — a compound annual growth rate of 11.6%. On the broader definition that takes in all collectible toys, Market Growth Reports puts 2026 at roughly US$27.5 billion heading to US$83.6 billion by 2035, a 10.8% CAGR. The two figures measure different scopes, but they point the same way. In China, the art and collectible toy market reached RMB 67.69 billion with 45.4% year-on-year growth, and sales on major e-commerce platforms rose 43.8% by value.
The more telling signal is inside the mix. In the first half of 2026 Pop Mart reported revenue of RMB 17.17 billion, up 23.8% year on year — while its plush products grew 60% to RMB 9.82 billion. Plush is now outgrowing the blind-box formats that built the category. Over the same period The Monsters family, home to Labubu, fell to 26% of revenue from 34.7% a year earlier. Read generously, that is a company diversifying beyond a single hit.
eMarketer reports that adult buyers drove the US toy industry to its strongest first half in six years, with unit sales up 12% and average selling prices up 4%. What matters to us is not the growth rate but the shape of it: adults buy across the year rather than clustering around the holidays, and they spend more per item on premium and collectible products. That is a steadier base to build on than a seasonal spike.
Grand View Research sizes the AI companion market at US$36.8 billion in 2025 and US$48.0 billion in 2026, growing at a 31.0% CAGR through 2033 — roughly three times the pace of the collectible toy market. China alone is reported to be approaching an US$11 billion domestic market for AI companions in 2026, as plush form factors and generative AI converge. The AI companion toy segment specifically is much smaller, around US$2.56 billion, growing at about 10.6%.
The gap between those two numbers is the interesting part. The broad AI companion market is compounding at 31%; the toy-shaped slice of it at 10.6%. Most of that growth is still happening in software. We think the companies that close the gap will be the ones that can do both — the conversation and the object.
Consumer 3D printing has moved past the hobbyist phase into personalised goods, driven by faster iteration, greater customisation and lower tooling costs. Toybox, one 3D-printing toy company, reports 350,000 monthly users and a 150% year-on-year rise in premium toy sales. Articulated figurines are among the fastest-growing categories. The direction of travel matches what we built our own additive-manufacturing line for.
Not all of it is encouraging, and we would rather say so. Toy and hobby sales growth is expected to slow over this holiday season rather than accelerate. Toy prices were up 4.0% year on year in July, and further increases could temper spending — with even committed adult collectors becoming more selective about what is worth the money. US holiday toy sales are forecast at US$14–15 billion, growing 4–6%: healthy, but decelerating.
A rising market does not carry everyone. Selectivity rewards brands with a reason to exist beyond the drop calendar.
Three things follow for how we build. First, plush and art toys are not a mature category being milked — on this data they are the part of the market still accelerating, which is why our designer plush and art toy lines stay central. Second, the AI companion gap is a manufacturing problem as much as a software one, which is why we run emotional-computing R&D and a physical production line under one roof rather than outsourcing either. Third, in a market where buyers are getting more selective, the brands that last will be the ones people choose to recommend.
We will keep publishing what the data says, including when it argues against us.
Sources: Coherent Market Insights; Market Growth Reports; Grand View Research; eMarketer; China Internet Watch; China Toy Expo; Pop Mart 2026 interim results. Market-sizing figures are third-party estimates and definitions vary between research houses; where scopes differ we have said so.
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